China Economic Review (February  2017)，张军与方红生、鲍雨欣发表合作文章Asymmetric reform bonus: The impact of VAT pilot expansion China's corporate total tax burden.

Asymmetric reform bonus: The impact of VAT pilot expansionon China's corporate total tax burden

Hongsheng Fang

School of Economics, Zhejiang University

Yuxin Bao

School of Economics, Zhejiang University

Jun Zhang

School of Economics, Fudan University

内容简介

Abstract:

China's VAT pilot program began in Shanghai and was extended to eight provincial-level regions in 2012. We develop a simple model to explore whether and how the VAT pilot expansion affects corporate total tax burden. We find that it will reduce corporate total tax burden of small-scale taxpayers, while for general taxpayers, total tax burden change is uncertain. Using unique company-level half-yearly panel data and general setting for DID analysis for multiple groups and multiple periods, we find that the average treatment effects of the VAT pilot expansion on corporate total tax burden of general taxpayers are insignificant in the pooled sample. Furthermore, the VAT program shows no heterogeneity between the transportation and modern services industries. However, we find that the pilot effect varies by deductible items. In particular, the reduction tax effect is stronger in companies with higher intermediate input rates, and the largest effect is 60.4%. These results are consistent with our conceptual framework.

Keywords：VAT pilot expansion; Corporate total tax burden; Asymmetric reform bonus

摘要：

中国增值税改革试点项目从上海开始，并在2012年扩展到8个省级地区。本文开发了一个简单的模型，用来探讨增值税试点扩展如何影响企业的总体税负。研究发现，这项改革将减少小规模纳税人的税负，而对于一般纳税人，其税负的变化是不确定的。本文使用多公司层面的半年期面板数据进行分组别和时期的DID分析，分析发现增值税试点扩张对一般纳税人的税负平均处理效果在合并样本中是微不足道的。此外，增值税改革在运输和现代服务业之间没有差异。然而，本文研究发现改革税负效果随增值税扣除项目变化而变化。尤其是中间投入率较高的公司，其减税效应更大，最大影响为60.4％。这些研究结果与本文的概念框架一致。

关键词: 增值税试点扩张；企业整体税负；非对称改革激励

附件：

张军，方红生-改革的红利.pdf