前沿 | 沈国兵等：中美贸易摩擦对中国被加征关税产品的贸易破坏和偏转效应
Guobing Shen, Peijie Wang, Yuanhan Xu. Trade destruction and deflection effects of US-China trade frictions on China’s tariff-targeted products. World Economy, 2021, 44: 2076–2106.
沈国兵，复旦大学经济学院教授、复旦大学中国经济研究中心研究员
Peijie Wang，英国普利茅斯大学商学院教授
本文探讨了中美贸易摩擦对中国适用加征关税细目下产品出口的影响。我们采用DID模型，对2017年1月至2019年6月中国与美国和第三方市场的月度贸易数据进行考察。研究发现：（1）美国对华价值500亿美元和2000亿美元产品加征关税，导致中国对美出口出现显著不利的贸易破坏效应。同时，对这些产品加征的关税，也对中国向第三方市场出口偏转起到了显著的促进作用。（2）美国对华500亿美元产品加征关税，对中国被加征关税产品出口产生了更大的贸易破坏和偏转效应，但只有美国对华2000亿美元产品加征关税产生了净贸易破坏效应。（3）美国对中国输美产品加征关税的贸易破坏效应主要集中在高技术密集型制造品和初级品上，而中国对第三方市场出口的贸易偏转效应主要集中在异质品上。这些发现具有重要的政策意义。
This paper probes into the impacts of US-China trade rows on China's exports of products covered under the applicable tariff lines. We scrutinise the monthly trade data of China with the US and third-party markets from January 2017 to June 2019, employing the DID model. It is found firstly that the US levy of tariffs on $50 billion and $200 billion worth of Chinese products have produced a significant and adverse trade destruction effect on China's exports to the US. Meanwhile, the tariffs levied on these products have played a significant and positive role in deflecting China's export to third-party markets. Second the US additional tariffs on $50 billion of China's products have produced greater trade destruction and deflection effects on China's export of tariff-targeted products to the US, whereas only the US additional tariffs on $200 billion of China's products have caused a net trade destruction effect. Third, it is confirmed that the trade destruction effects of US additional tariffs on Chinese products exported to the US are mainly concentrated on high tech-intensive manufactures and primary goods, while the trade deflection effect of China's export to third-party markets is concentrated on differentiated products. The findings render crucial policy implications.
文章来源 | The World Economy
编辑 | 耿嘉晶
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